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The greatest geopolitical situation in the world right now is the fact that Russia and Ukraine are on the verge of the breakout of a full-fledged war. Vladimir Putin has been trying to take Ukraine back into Russia ever since it has declared its wish to join the North Altantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

Putin claims Ukraine’s culture is an integral part of Russia itself. Troops have been deployed from both the countries on their borders. NATO countries like the US, France, Britain has sent aid in the form of weapons and soldiers to train the Ukrainian troops.

The stability of the region is on the brink of chaos as Russia has been unpredictably moving its armies while the US has made strong claims that Russia can order an attack anytime soon. While the US and other countries have made it clear that they’re completely open to the diplomatic solutions to the crisis, Putin has been passive aggressive about it.

Reasons there could indeed be an all out war:

 Although Ukraine is backed by powerful countries like the USA and UK, Russia has reasons to believe that the retaliation from their side will not be as deadly as originally presumed. USA’s image has been weakened by its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and it would be a valid assumption that USA is trying to recover from the losses it had to face and won’t be able to give its fullest.

Angela Merkel is no longer the Chancellor of Germany and hence, no significance help is expected from the country at the moment. UK is still reviving from Brexit and the France is holding its presidential elections next years.

These circumstances are hardly favourable for a country to bring down its complete attention to the aid of Ukraine. Ukraine, which is itself a small country with a comparatively smaller military power than Russia, although capable of causing significant damage to Russian Army and Economy, stands a rare chance against it.

Reasons there could be no attack

Russia knows the consequences of initiating a full-fledged war. Powerful but insecure authoritarian governments are known to make a display of dominance; Russia could be doing the same with its military deployment, to send a message and to threaten.

Apart from that, the USA could sanction Russia’s international trade, which would downturn its economy and consequentially damage the economy of the other European countries that depend on Russia. Another reason, Taking control of Eastern Ukraine might be easy for Russia, as the area is dominated by Russia-backed separatist groups, but taking the whole country will have a tremendous cost.

Now that Ukraine has the support of the NATO countries, this crisis might lead to a world war, eventually triggering a nuclear holocaust, which will be the worst humanitarian crisis ever thought of, that’s the worst-case scenario. The most probable action and consequence activity is the downfall of Global Economy.

Effect on economy

Russia is an energy superpower, which produced 9.7 million barrels per day last year. which is more than what was produced by Iraq and Canada combined. A conflict potentially threatens to completely damage the European economy that’s still trying to recover itself after the Covid-crisis.

In Ukraine, the economy might decline by 8% this year itself. Even people in the USA will feel the consequences of a full blown conflict. It would drive-up the already high cost of living in the United States, rattle investment portfolios, and slow down the economic recovery.

An invasion on Ukraine can wreck the Russian energy supply. Oil prices could rise if Russian oil flows are disrupted by crisis. Possibility of an oil shock, higher inflation and a confusing sanctions regime would derail the world economy, as all the economies are interconnected in one way or the other.

Who’s getting the profit from this war?

The US has Special Forces training Ukrainian soldiers and has 8,500 troops on alert, Denmark is sending fighter jets to Lithuania and a Frigate to the Baltic, France has presented armed forces to Romania and Spain is sending a warship to the Black Sea.

Britain has sent anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, along with soldiers to train the Ukrainian army in their use, and to send more troops to Estonia. Some 2,000 of those British weapons have currently been shipped at an undisclosed cost.

Sale of these weapons, with their rapid export to Ukraine, will contribute to the promotion of their potential. An actual war would be even more beneficial in Boosting sale- especially if they turn out to be effective against Russian investment.

A good Arms sales career fundamentally benefits its companies as well as shareholders. And a common sales practice after wars is to increase the marketing, for any weapon used in the conflict. That’s primarily what the war-promoting Hydra, the arms industries do.

It is a common saying that if the military forces want to remain profitable, they need to have enemies.

 War is nothing more than an investment.

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